What does the US tariffs mean for the Polish economy?

Earlier this week, Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny has made a working paper on the topic with few scenarios.

Few key points:

📊 2.6% of Poland's GDP is generated due to demand from the United States

🌍 The USA is currently Poland's 8th largest direct export partner

🔄 However, when accounting for indirect trade, the USA becomes the second-largest recipient of Polish value added (after Germany) - with over 57% of Polish value added reaching the U.S. indirectly through other countries

📦 20% of Polish exporting companies sell to the U.S. market

📉 In PIE's scenarios, 25% tariffs would decrease the Polish GDP by around 0,4%, decrease exports by 3-4% and the most affected industries are obviously automotive, transport, production of for example electronics, metals, machines etc. Among them obviously the decline is far higher than 0,4%

Also, worth noticing, is the China effect. There are now "concerns" that China will increase imports to the EU..

But, imports from China are already starting to hurt the Polish manufacturing sector, both via direct to Poland and taking Polish exporters market share in the other EU countries. China is now the 2nd largest importer to Poland (again, after Germany) and its imports grew 6,5% (in euro values) in 2024.